The excitement hangover from the recent launch of the
iPhone 3G is breathing much-needed new life into the sluggish mobile data
business in the United States, according
to a new research report.
In
the report released on Thursday, research firm SNL Kagan upped its mobile data
projections in the wake of the frenzy generated by the iPhone and other new
smart phone models.
The
firm now expects mobile data revenue in the U.S., which has lagged both Europe
and Asia, to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 16 percent from $24
billion in 2007 to $100 billion in 2017. By comparison, the total wireless
service revenue will grow by just 5 percent for the same period, the report
said.
The
firm expects data subscribers to grow at a 5.8 percent clip to $249.5 million by
2017, while total wireless subscribers will grow at just a 2.9 percent clip
over the same period.
Price
pressures on mobile voice, along with rapidly approaching mobile market saturation,
and slowing service revenue growth are transforming mobile data from an
immature secondary service to the primary driver of revenue growth, the report
said.
“Right
now the visible top line growth outlook in wireless is relatively modest, with
declining sub gains and so much pressure on voice revenue countering the surge
in data,” SNL Kagan analysts John Fletcher and Sharon Armbrust said in the
report.
“But
we think the open-endedness of wireless data options, especially related to
location sensitive and personalized mobile commerce and advertising
opportunities, could give wireless a second wind in the not too distant
future,” they concluded.
To date,
with the exception of SMS and MMS, mobile data, which includes services such as
mobile video/TV, mobile Internet, music, and e-mail among others, has not
spurred robust demand in the U.S. or elsewhere.
Mobile
data generated about 20 percent of total worldwide mobile revenues in the first
quarter 2008, according to a recent report from Informa Telecoms & Media.
At least part of that grow could come from cannibalized voice service. SMS and MMS, both voice substitutes,
were responsible for more than 70 percent of the $49 billion mobile data
generated in the quarter.