The clock ticked loudly for Microsoft and Yahoo Friday as the worlds of technology and finance waited for a denouement in their sometimes- stormy three-month courtship.

Both camps were silent, but based on strength in Yahoo shares, one analyst, based on admittedly back-of-the-napkin math, calculated that Wall Street gives a 61 percent chance that a deal will close at $33.

“Obviously, this is a simple model, but the market is treating Yahoo stock in an optimistic way,” said Robert Becker, an analyst with Argus Research.

Mr. Becker’s formula is based on a current price for Yahoo of $28 and a price, if no transaction takes place of $20.

Readers of tea leaves were busy trying to discern the silence from both camps after The Wall Street Journal reported that talks had “intensified” between the two companies in an effort to reach a deal. As of late Thursday, The Journal reported, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer was “leaning toward” a proxy fight to seize Yahoo.

Wall Street took the silence as a bullish sign and pushed Yahoo’s shares up $1.08, or 4 percent, to $27.92 in afternoon trading. After languishing around $19 at the end of January, Yahoo stock has been buoyed by the Microsoft bid worth $31 a share, or $44.6 billion, when it was announced on February 1. Microsoft stock slipped $.24, or .8 percent, to $29.16.

Yahoo, led by co-founder and Chief Executive Jerry Yang, has consistently held that the cash and stock offer, now worth less than $30 per share, undervalues the company. In a bid to slip Microsoft’s grasp—or at least force it to raise its bid--Yahoo has cozied up to Internet rival Google, applying its advertising system to Yahoo’s Internet search as a way of squeezing out more revenue.

But Microsoft has used the takeover bid as a cudgel. By threatening to walk away from the deal, Microsoft is exerting pressure on Yahoo shareholders who could see the stock price tumble if the deal is abandoned.

Mr. Becker noted that even if Microsoft and Yahoo agree to the outlines of a deal, it could take some time to finalize it.

“It’s one thing to get together to hash out a price, but an actual contract, with all the stipulations that have to be addressed –that could take a long time,” he said. “How much time does it usually take to do due diligence? It typically takes longer than a Kentucky Derby weekend.”