In advance of World Heart Day, on Sunday, the World Health Organization has warned that the number of overweight and obese people worldwide will hit 1.5 billion by 2015, if current trends continue.

“The rapid increase of overweight and obesity in many low- and middle-income countries foretells an overwhelming chronic disease burden in these countries in the next 10 to 20 years, if action is not taken now,” said Dr. Catherine Le Galès-Camus, WHO assistant director-general of noncommunicable diseases and mental health.

That will bring with it a shift in the cardiovascular market. According to IMS Health, an industry-monitoring firm, the two leading brands of cholesterol-lowering drugs, Pfizer’s Lipitor and Merck’s Zocor, achieved 2004 worldwide sales of $12 billion and $5.9 billion, respectively.

However, $7.7 billion of Lipitor’s revenue and $4.6 billion of Zocor’s revenue came from the United States alone.

Anne Wolf of the University of Virginia Medical School has estimated $96.7 billion was spent on obesity problems in the U.S. in 2003 (see U.S. Obesity Cost: $96.7 B).

Heavyweight Contenders

The WHO estimates that more than three-quarters of men over 30 years old are overweight in countries such as Argentina, Kuwait, and Samoa. The same is true for women over 30 in Barbados, Egypt, Malta, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.

Two Western Pacific islands—Nauru and Tonga—have the highest proportion of overweight people in the world, with 90 percent of all adults with a body mass index (BMI) of more than 25.

At present, cardiovascular disease accounts for more than 17 million deaths each year.

“The real tragedy is that overweight and obesity, and their related chronic diseases, are largely preventable,” said Dr. Robert Beaglehole, WHO director of chronic diseases and health promotion.

“Approximately 80 percent of heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes, and 40 percent of cancer, could be avoided through healthy diet, regular physical activity, and avoidance of tobacco use,” he added.

Overweight people have a BMI of between 25 and 30. The figure is calculated by dividing body weight in kilograms by height in meters-squared. Obesity is defined as having a BMI of more than 30.